The 2019-20 NHL campaign is less than two weeks away, making it the perfect time to preview what might be ahead.
I’m going to predict each of the major award winners alongside honorable mentions I believe to have a realistic shot.
Today we’re looking at the Vezina Trophy.
Winner: John Gibson – Anaheim Ducks
It’s easy to argue Gibson is the best goaltender in the NHL. From 2015-19, 27 goaltenders appeared in at least 150 games. Gibson ranks 2nd in save percentage – .001 behind Ben Bishop for top spot – and nobody has posted a higher Quality Start%.
Gibson’s numbers stack up against anyone’s, even All-Stars playing on perennial contenders such as Andrei Vasilevskiy and Pekka Rinne. That’s pretty remarkable considering last season Gibson played behind an absolute tire fire of a Ducks team that routinely gave up 40-50 shots.
I honestly think he should have a Vezina or two to his name already. There’s no specific reason why I’m backing him to get one this year. I just have to believe he’ll be recognized sooner or later if he continues to play lights out each and every season.
Honorable mention: Andrei Vasilevskiy – Tampa Bay Lightning
Vasilevskiy is probably the safest bet to be a finalist for the Vezina. He has everything you look for in a candidate.
His numbers over the last couple seasons range from above-average to great, whether you’re looking at high-danger save percentage (.826 – 12th), raw save percentage (.922 – 4th) or goals saved above average (41.88 – 1st).
Vasilevskiy is a workhorse goaltender capable of handling as many starts as Jon Cooper is willing to throw at him. He also plays for the league’s most dominant team, meaning he’s going to pile up the #winzzz even if he’s not always on his game.
There’s no reason to believe he won’t contend for some more hardware this season.
Honorable mention: Devan Dubnyk – Minnesota Wild
He is my darkhorse pick for the reward. I know it sounds crazy but I really don’t think it is.
The Wild were anything but successful last season. A lot of that was due to a lack of offense, though. They were the league’s best team at suppressing scoring chances and Devan Dubnyk, while not at his best, still managed to post a save percentage well above league average.
I think the Wild have a sneaky chance of getting back into the playoffs this season. If that’s the case and Dubnyk’s numbers pop up a bit more – which isn’t a stretch playing behind an elite defensive side – I really believe he could be in the conversation.
Dubnyk is not the sexiest name out there. I know that. But this is a guy who has posted a better save percentage than Frederik Andersen, Carey Price, Henrik Lundqvist, Braden Holtby and Marc-Andre Fleury over the last three seasons. He is good.
It’s not unrealistic to think a good goaltender on an elite defensive team can contend for the Vezina.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Hockey-Reference.com
