Unrestricted free agency begins on July 1st. The 2019 class features some interesting possibilities. Also, some players stand to make more money and some may take a little less than expected. That is the nature of the business. One of the players in a strangely good position is Jordan Eberle.
Jordan Eberle was consistently mediocre at best…
Eberle opened the season with six points in 11 contests and never had that month or two that stood out. As a matter of fact, Eberle totaled seven points in 14 February games for his most productive month. Unfortunately, it became a theme of sorts this year for the winger.
Eberle played 16 1/2 minutes a night, saw ample power-play time, and was on one of the better defensive teams in the league. Yet, little of that translated into his numbers.
Now, the expectation was that Eberle’s stats would bounce back closer to his 60 point pace from last season.
Then consistent inconsistency kept impacting Jordan Eberle
Again, the winger never got things going. There were few instances of consistency but the amazing lack of a standout month was bothersome. This, after all, is a player who again had 60 point potential.
While his ice time began to dip below 16 minutes a night, Eberle still potted several goals each month as the forward did just enough to be on those free agent radars. The problem is “just enough” did not mean extraordinary, etc.
By January, Jordan Eberle averaged nearly 2.5 shots per game. The thought process became maybe the forward is finally back on track. Unfortunately, this could not improve and Eberle finished a hair off from being a 20-20 player.
Eberle’s relative possession metrics were solid with an average of 2.4% higher than the average. The winger’s playoff run featured nine points in eight games including four goals. That included an average of more than three shots on net per contest. Even some pundits wondered where this Eberle had been all season long.
What does it all mean for Jordan Eberle now?
According to Evolving Wild, the forward’s projected salary is approximately seven years at an AAV of about $6.05 million. Oddly, his sub-4o point campaign impacted little in the eyes of projections. Some experts suggested a six-year, $6 million AAV type of contract. That would surprise a few but not most. Justin Williams and Timo Meier are cap comparables at that projection.
Then, we present Sean Tierney’s charts from Tableau. Eberle ranks in the fun category for several metrics — including Corsi relative and player expected goals at 5 on 5. His even-strength points per 60 lines up with players like Anthony Beauvillier and Leo Komarov.
Also, note that performance usage is accurate. There was this feeling that Eberle could turn it on any time. In his case, he saved those numbers just for the playoffs. It will not wash away the sour feeling many had during his regular season but it does help.
It is the main reason why that the forward should not get a $5 million AAV in his next deal. Jordan Eberle plays better than what he showed during the 2018-19 season and the postseason illustrated that fact. The problem is his body of work indicates a contract projection higher than $6 million.
Therefore, as a general manager, what does one do? With the scarcity of scoring wingers out there, does one spend up in the hopes of getting 2017-18 Eberle basically? The possibility exists of seeing that again but how many times will that happen over the course of his next new deal? Jordan Eberle has a reasonable projected ceiling but is he worth the same money as a William Karlsson or Mats Zuccarello? That answer is an unequivocal no! Yet, his likelihood of seeing $6+ million AAV is rather high.
Welcome to crazy town as the contracts start getting formed and signed.
Into The 2019 NHL Unrestricted Free Agent Class: Ryan Dzingel
