With the National Hockey League in the midst of the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, management teams are focusing their attention on getting a last look at young prospects playing in the CHL Playoffs or at the Under-18 Tournament in Grand Forks, ND for the upcoming 2016 NHL Draft in Buffalo, NY.
Organizations will be looking to make significant trades before and during that June weekend in Western New York and are also plotting out strategies for the Monday following the Draft, when the five-day negotiating window to speak to unrestricted free agents begins.
Steven Stamkos will likely be the center of attention leading up to July 1, with the 2008 top pick being potentially the biggest free agent target since Brad Richards, but once you get past the Tampa Bay team captain, there are not many difference makers available still in the prime of their careers.
A determining factor in how brisk business will be in early July is where the salary cap will be for next season.
The league cap amount could go up to $74 Million per team (up from $71.4 Million) if the NHL Player’s Association agrees to the escalator clause that would mean increasing escrow to 18% of salaries. If the players decide to not activate the clause, the cap would likely remain at the current level for 2016-17, which would hamper many teams from bidding on UFA’s.
Besides Stamkos, the most enticing target could be Kings winger Milan Lucic, who scored 55 points (20 goals, 35 assists) for Los Angeles after being traded by Boston last summer and is just 27 years old. The most attractive defenseman may be Keith Yandle, who led the Rangers with 42 assists and turns 30 just prior to next season.
The trio of Stamkos, Lucic and Yandle may be the only players who generate enough interest to leverage a six or seven-year contract from a team, whereas the bulk of the free agents (mostly 30 or older) may have to take a shorter term deal to get a high salary or take less money to get a longer term.
Goaltending may be the thinnest on available talent this summer, with Cam Ward and James Reimer at the top of the UFA list. Ward has likely lost his job to the less pricey Eddie Lack in Carolina and also has an injury history that could limit interest.
Reimer played well for the rebuilding Leafs and had three shutouts after being traded to San Jose, but the 27-year-old never proved to be consistent or durable enough to be given the starting job with Toronto and will not be re-signed by the Sharks with Martin Jones the primary starter.
Dallas blueliner Alex Goligoski could be a Plan B for clubs who miss out on Yandle in July, but the list of available defensemen is populated more with veteran stop-gap options (Brian Campbell, Dan Hamhuis, John-Michael Liles, Christian Ehrhoff) than viable options under 30 (Luke Schenn, Jason Demers, Roman Polak, Kris Russell).
Eric Staal and David Backes are the most viable options up the middle after Stamkos, but both appear to be on the decline. The eldest Staal has not impressed after being shipped from Carolina to the Rangers prior to the deadline and will not come close to getting $8.25 Million or seven years on his new deal. Wear and tear may have taken its toll on Backes, who posted his worst offensive season (21 goals, 24 assists) for the Blues in six seasons.
Andrew Ladd, Loui Eriksson and Kyle Okposo will draw the most attention from teams looking for scoring on the wing who miss out on Lucic. The former Winnipeg Jets captain continues to be the model of consistency, with 20 goals or more five of the last six seasons. Eriksson finished behind only Patrice Bergeron in scoring and Okposo provides a big-bodied presence and scoring touch that many teams are looking for.
Players like Frans Nielsen, Jamie McGinn and Kris Russell could be options for a team looking for quality depth at an affordable price, but the majority of available UFA’s this summer are likely to get contracts that will make those teams regret the signings in the very near future.
Written by Michael Augello, who can be found on twitter @MikeInBuffalo
