NHL Hockey is one of the most popular sports in the world. It’s watched by millions of people every year and has been for decades. Unlike other sports, which are primarily regional and don’t have as broad an appeal, NHL has fans worldwide.
If you’re new to betting on hockey and looking for help on how to win at it, you’ve come to the right place. We’ve got some helpful NHL Betting Tips to help you make money on your bets.
Goalie Evaluation
The goalie is the most impactful position in professional hockey, and goaltending is incredibly volatile and brutal to project. Most hockey bettors will agree that it is the most challenging aspect of handicapping hockey.
Past the eye test, the best way to get an idea of how good a goaltender is is to leverage advanced statistics and piece them together for a macro view.
- Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) is a new statistic developed by Corsica Hockey Analytics. GSAA is pretty similar to WAR (Wins Above Replacement). In simple terms, GSAA calculates how many goals a particular goalie has saved/allowed compared to what a league-average netminder has done. GSAA is a terrific way to compare the two starting netminders in any game.
- 5v5 Save Percentage (SV%) is an easy-to-understand statistic that grades goaltenders’ performance in the most common hockey scenario when both teams are skating five skaters a side. It’s not uncommon for 80-90% of a hockey game to fall in this category, underscoring the importance of a goalie’s performance.
- Expected (xSV%) and Delta Save Percentage (dSV%) yield a goaltender’s save percentage after weighing the quality of shots he’s faced. Delta Save Percentage is the difference between a goalie’s xSV% and SV%. For example, if the Los Angeles Kings goalie Jonathan Quick has a .920 xSV% and a .925 SV%, his dSV% would be +0.05.
Implied Probability Calculation
Implied probability is a calculation of betting odds into a fixed percentage. It factors in the bookmaker margin (vigorish or vig) to determine the expected probability of a given outcome.
Every hockey puck line and moneyline correlates with an implied probability percentage. A moneyline example would be the Vegas Golden Knights -130 playing against the New Jersey Devils +110.
At -130, the Golden Knights have an implied probability of 56.5% when calculating the sportsbook margin. At +110, Montreal has a 47.6% chance. The easiest way to do this is by using betting tools and calculators at sites like ProTipster, but they can also be figured out with a calculator.
Converting Negative American Odds
Negative American Odds / (Negative American Odds + 100) x 100 or in our example, 130 / (130+100) x 100 = 56.5%
Converting Positive American Odds
100 / (Positive American Odds + 100) x 100 = or in our example, 100 / (110 + 100) x 100 = 47.6%
Implied probability should then be compared against all other factors to help you make your final betting decisions.
Closing Line Value
You’ll often find moneyline odds changing right up to close. A great way to evaluate your betting strategies is to compare what side your wagers fall on compared to the closing line. An example would be a wager on the Tampa Bay Lightning (-120) to win at the San Jose Sharks (+100).
If the closing line value of the game is Tampa Bay Lightning at -125, you were on the right side of the game. If the line closed at -115, you were on the wrong side.
Your wagering strategy is robust if you consistently find yourself on the right side of the closing number. Conversely, if you aren’t, take it as an opportunity to re-evaluate your wagering process and adjust.
Why Bet on Hockey
There are many reasons why people bet on NHL games. Some people do it for fun, while others do it because they’re looking for a way to make money. Whatever your reason for doing so, remember the things you should know before placing any bets on NHL games online or elsewhere.
Why should you bet on this league? It’s fun! The NHL offers excellent odds and exciting action. No professional sports league is more unpredictable than the NHL, making it even more fun to watch games. The combination of high-quality play and unexpected outcomes makes betting on the NHL a must for any gambler who loves excitement and enjoys watching athletes display their talents at a high level.
