Written by Todd Cordell (@ToddCordell)
After a lengthy negotiation the Ottawa Senators and Mike Hoffman managed to agree to a contract extension in advance of arbitration, as Hoffman put pen to paper on a four-year deal worth $5.1875 million per season.
From the Senators’ perspective this contract looks like an absolute steal.
Hoffman only has a couple years of service in the NHL, but he has been fantastic and all signs suggest he’ll be well worth the investment the Senators made in him.
Since entering the league in 2014, only nine players have scored more 5 v 5 goals than Hoffman. If you adjust for time on ice Hoffman looks even better as just six players have scored more 5 v 5 goals per 60 minutes played. Those six? Vladimir Tarasenko, Rick Nash, Tyler Seguin, Patrick Kane, Corey Perry and Alex Ovechkin.
Hoffman isn’t just a goal scorer/point producer, though. He has shown the ability to drive play and the Senators have been much better with him on the ice than without.
At 5 v 5 the Senators have controlled a 56.8% share of the goals and a little more than 50% of the shot attempts with Hoffman. Without Hoffman the Senators have been a well below average team controlling just 47.3% of the goals and 48% of the shot attempts.
By almost all objective measurements Hoffman is a high-end top line forward and, at just 26, he should be just that for a while longer.
Should that be the case Hoffman will be a steal at $5.1875 million.
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Being active in free agency is usually not a good thing for NHL teams because a) it probably means your team has a lot of holes and; b) more often than not you have to significantly overpay to fill them.
In saying that, there is some value to be had on the market. Every year a handful of useful players sign for pennies and turn out to be much more important pieces on their teams than anyone expected.
One player who I think could fit the bill from this year’s crop is forward Sam Gagner.
The 26-year-old recently signed a one-year deal with the Columbus Blue Jackets worth just $650,000, the lowest salary of any player on their roster.
While Gagner has bounced around a fair bit in recent years, and never lived up to the hype surrounding him coming out of junior, he is still a pretty effective player.
Two years ago he tallied 41 points with the Arizona Coyotes and, though his point totals dipped to 16 in 53 games last season, his underlying numbers are good.
Despite starting more of his shifts outside of the offensive zone than every Philadelphia Flyers’ forward not named Sean Couturier, his on-ice results were still solid.
The sample size wasn’t overly large (~600 minutes) but with Gagner on the ice the Flyers controlled 51.7% of the shot attempts and 55% of the goals at 5 v 5. Without Gagner those numbers were 52.8% and 51% respectively.
Even if his offense has dried up, there is still a lot of value in driving play. If he can continue to move the needle with Columbus, he’ll be worth more than what they’re paying him. Any added offense is a bonus.
