This was not an easy process. The goal here illustrates the fact that free agency classes can be fickle to say the least. Which free agents have provided then will provide the biggest point per dollar return? Better yet, which ones will not end up in the buyer’s remorse category?
Those were two major factors to consider. Age is another big aspect as far as pre-prime, prime, near past prime, and past prime. First things first, we wanted to consider the oldies but goodies. These are players approaching or past the age of 35.
Apparently, more free agents are near, at, or over this number than expected. Expect the unexpected here as far as age, dollar amounts, and more. Here are three of the most sought-after free agents from the soon to be 35 and up category.
NHL Free Agents 35+ Centers
3. Joe Thornton — San Jose Sharks — 40 years old in 2019
Again, the question becomes how long does Thornton want to play. Signing a one year contract is almost part of the center’s vernacular. Some were alarmed when he suffered what was thought to be another knee injury. However, it was just an infection, which is being cured by antibiotics. In his first two games, Thornton eased into play with an average time of ice around 16 minutes a contest. Consider that his career ATOI was near 20 minutes.
The good thing is Thornton preserved himself pretty well up until the knee issues last season into 2018. His shooting percentage is a robust 14%, but remember he averages just 1.4 to 1.5 shots a game. Assists are Thornton’s primary impact, along with possession — whether that is at even strength or on the power play.
He’ll earn $5 million for the 2018-19 campaign. What could he make for 2019-20, if he chooses to return? The current cap is $79.5 million and could be as high as $82-85 million for 2019-20. San Jose faces a dilemma of sorts as they will have two 35+-year-old centers come the summer of 2019. Is Thornton willing to take another pay cut? He likely will have to.
2. Joe Pavelski — San Jose Sharks — 35 years old in 2019
Last season saw Pavelski dip in some key numbers including shooting percentage (less than 10%). It was the first season since the 2010-11 campaign where this occurred. Possession metrics and chances created dropped also in the previous two seasons as well. That becomes troubling. His early start was looking bleak until two goals against the Philadelphia Flyers earlier in the week.
The nice part of all this is that San Jose has a Stanley Cup contending team. Pavelski struggling is not as big of a deal early as if he were playing poorly later. Numbers are up overall in the early going, right down to the shot output per game. There expects to be a bounce back. It is a question of how much. Does he wind up with 60 or 70 points?
Pavelski earns $6 million for the 2018-19 season. What may he get paid for 2019-20? Does he sign a multi-year deal or does he test free agency? The likelihood is a two or three-year contract but one never quite knows. Teams are leery of going four or five years at age 35. A dollar amount could be around what his pay is now. This depends on rest of season production. Stay tuned.
1. Eric Staal — Minnesota Wild — 35 years old by October 2019
Staal comes out two amazing seasons in Minnesota and now features his contract year. His reasonably priced contract at $3,500,000 means a likely increase for his next deal. The question looms as to how much.
Regression is expected for the center this year. Will he score in 25-30 goal range or closer to 40? The answer appears to be the former and not the latter. However, looks can be deceiving. Possession metrics have almost always been strong with Staal. That has been a prevailing narrative since 2014-15 where he has basically averaged +5% relative. This is significant. He averages around three shots a night. Chance generation is that of a top 25 forward in the league.
Staal cranking out 65-70 points is still a definite possibility. What could he make next season if he tests free agency? Honestly, a raise is likely as his current deal is an excessive bargain.