By Peter Harling, who can be found on twitter at @pharling
It is rare for restricted free agents to receive offer sheets in the NHL, but this off season presents three scenarios where it could happen.
With the salary cap projected to rise by less than originally anticipated, and some teams dangerously close to the ceiling, potential poachers may smell an opportunity to try to pry a star player away.
Brandon Saad – Chicago Blackhawks
The Chicago Blackhawks have already been forced to purge their roster of players for salary cap reasons. Previous cap casualties include Dustin Byfuglien, Andrew Ladd, Dave Bolland, and Nick Leddy to name a few. Heading into the 2015 off season they have just under $5 million in projected cap space to work with according to Generalfanager.com. Chicago has 11 players with expiring contracts and need to add at least seven to field a full roster including four forwards and three defencemen. Some key veterans such as Brad Richards, Antoine Vermette, Johnny Oduya and Michael Rozsival are all unrestricted free agents and are expected to move on.
The key contract for the Blackhawks is restricted free agent Brandon Saad. Saad is under his ELC and is poised for a massive raise this summer…with one team or another. With several expensive veterans moving on and young cheap players such as Artemi Panatin, Trevor van Riemsdyk, and Stephen Johns expected to help fill out the roster, Saad is the big question mark.
For the Hawks to sign Saad it will likely take between four and six million and they simply cannot afford to do that without creating more cap space by trading away a contract such as Corey Crawford or Patrick Sharp. The return in such a trade would almost certainly be far less than the compensation they would receive from a Saad trade or offer sheet. Should Saad be signed as a free agent and the Hawks choose not to match, the compensation would likely be a first, second and third round pick.
The compensation must come in the form of the teams own draft picks, which means there are only 14 teams able to make Saad an offer. It would stand to reason that a team making an offer would also need to consider themselves a contender, have sufficient cap space and prospect depth to afford the compensation.
The Nashville Predators are one such team. They had an impressive season but still lack some offensive punch and Saad can deliver that. Ranked seventh in THN Future Watch, they have the second lowest payroll in the NHL, but have some major holes to fill up front.
How badly does Chicago want Saad to be a part of their long term core, and are they willing to go through another fire sale of veteran players to keep him?
Dougie Hamilton – Boston Bruins
The Boston Bruins are facing a similar dilemma with star defenceman Dougie Hamilton. The Bruins have just under five million in projected cap space and will need to sign six players to fill out their roster. The team has already informed Carl Soderberg that they intend not to offer him a new contract and the same is expected for fellow UFA’s Dan Paille, Greg Campbell, Adam McQuaid, and Matt Bartkowski. Backup Victor Svedberg has already signed a contract to play in the KHL next season, leaving Hamilton and Ryan Spooner as they key players to be re-signed. Spooner came on strong to finish the season, showing he is ready for prime time and should expect to sign a bridge contract.
Hamilton and his agent have made their intentions clear that they are looking for a Drew Doughty type contract in the $7 million per season range. That is a number Boston cannot go to without moving out an expensive player such as aging captain Zdeno Chara, or Milan Lucic who becomes a free agent next summer.
The magic number for any team looking to make Hamilton an offer is $7,305,316. As anything over that and the compensation jumps from a first, second and third round picks to two first round picks and a second and a third. Moving the offer above that number increases the odds of the bid being successful as it will be very difficult for Boston to match financially and the compensation becomes more appealing.
One potential team who could offer Hamilton a contract is the Edmonton Oilers. Former Bruin GM Pete Chirelli knows Hamilton all too well and perhaps would love nothing more than to rip his old teams star defenceman away from the team that fired him. Adding Hamilton to the Oilers impressive young core which is for the most part, signed long term already, would certainly be a feather in their cap. The Oilers can also absorb the loss of the draft choices as well.
Vladimir Tarasenko – St. Louis Blues
Perhaps the most intriguing RFA this summer will be Vladimir Tarasenko of the St Louis Blues. Tank had a breakout season finishing tenth overall in league scoring, and as such will command a significant contract.
The Blues are not as in such a vulnerable position as Chicago and Boston as they have a projected almost $12 million in cap space, with only four players short of a full roster. Goalie Jake Allen, another RFA is one of the players the Blues need to re-sign, while Olli Jokinen, Marcel Goc, Zbynek Michalek, and Barrett Jackman represent the key UFA players who may be allowed to test the open market. The Blues will need to keep an eye on the future however, as Captain David Backes will need to be re-signed in 2016, but the Blues should be able to find a way to sign Tarasenko.
But just because they can, does not mean they will want to sign him? Of course they want to sign him, but should the Blues decide his value tops out at around $8 million and another team may come along and offer him a $9 million, would the Blues match, or take the two first round picks and second a third in compensation?
Would another team be willing to pay Tarasenko over $9,131,645 which would bump the compensation up to a whopping four first round picks? That may be what is required in order to persuade the Blues not to match. While every NHL team is currently in possession of their four next first round picks, only a select few could seriously consider such an offer. The Anaheim Ducks have around $17 million in cap to work with and may feel that would push them over the top. Perhaps Washington, who has about $19 million in cap room, would be willing in order to see a Russian unit of Kuznetsov between Ovechkin and Tarasenko.
While there have only been three restricted free agent contract offers in the last five year in Shea Weber, Ryan O’Reilly and Niklas Hjalmarsson and none of which went unmatched, could this off-season be the year we see a precedent setting poaching of a young star?
Brandon Saad
Dougie Hamilton
Vladimir Tarasenko
Brandon Saad
Dougie Hamilton
Vladimir Tarasenko
