By Peter Harling, who can be found on twitter at @pharling
Both Rick Nash and Phil Kessel are the subject of trade rumors currently, but who is more likely to be traded?
Kessel trade rumors were rampant heading into the trade deadline as the Toronto Maple Leafs plummeted down the standings and his performance bottomed out.
Nash on the other hand had a 42 goal season in a nice rebound performance to lead the Rangers with 69 points, but faltered in the playoffs for a second year in a row. (Trade speculation coming from Bob McKenzie and Larry Brooks.)
Both players are proven goal scorers who carry big contracts. Nash has a $7.8 million cap hit and will become a UFA in three years at the age of 34. Kessel has an $8 million cap hit and will also become a UFA at the age of 34, but not for another seven years. Kessel is the longer term option but it begs the question; can he continue to produce at the same level for that long, or will his contract become a detriment?
Kessel has been labeled a Coach killer and his trade value has plummeted to all-time lows. What could the Leafs hope to get in return? Assuming they are required to either retain a portion of his salary or take back a contract, they can command a healthy return along the lines of a premier draft pick and a top prospect or two. A good base for comparison could be the Nash to New York trade as their contracts are similar and at similar stages. Columbus received Brandon Dubinsky, Artem Anisimov and a first round pick.
Nash returned to the 40 goal plateau for the third time in his career, a nice rebound performance after faltering during the Rangers drive to the Stanley Cup Final, where he scored only three goals and seven assists in 25 games. In the 2015 playoffs, Nash recorded 14 points in 19 games. On the surface that is not bad at all, but take into account he scored seven of those 14 points in two games and he actually was pointless in 11 of the 19 games he played and for significant stretches was a non-factor. Assuming New York wants to trade Nash because he a proven playoff under performer, why would another contending team want to burden themselves with his contract and suffer the same frustration come the post season?
Kessel has a small sample size of playoff performance to judge him on, but in 22 career playoff games he has scored 21 points, almost a point per game.
It is also worth noting that Nash carries a full no trade clause on his contract, while Kessel has a limited NTC and can submit a list of eight teams he would accept a trade to.
Given the difference in age and playoff performance two conclusions can be drawn. The first is that Kessel should be the more attractive option. The second is the cost of acquiring him should be significant as well.
Rick Nash
Phil Kessel
Rick Nash
Phil Kessel
