Ryan McDonagh signed a seven-year, $47.25 million extension with the Tampa Bay Lightning over the weekend. Tampa Bay keeps one of their core defensive piece in place. What does this all mean? What impact may it have down the road? Let’s take a look.
Ryan McDonagh contract explained
Again, thanks to CapFriendly, contracts are easier to dive into quickly. McDonagh’s extension does not kick in until 2019-20. He will earn $4,700,000 for the 2018-19 campaign. Joe Smith makes sense of it here. Steve Yzerman said the following on McDonagh:
“We really like (McDonagh’s) two-way game, we like the fact he’s big, strong, good skater — strong skater,” Yzerman said Sunday. “Especially like the character of the person. We felt he made us a better team. When we traded for him, the idea was to keep him beyond next year and we were able to (do that).”
The salary cap hit comes in at $6.75 million for the extension. However, the salary is just a bit different. McDonagh earns $8.4 million in years one, three, and five of the extension. That number drops to $5.4 million for years two and four. Year six comes in at $6.93 million but falls to $4.2 million for the final season.
Now, there are some wrinkles with this deal. For one, McDonagh gets a no-trade clause for the first six years of the extension. Simply, a no-trade means he cannot be traded without his permission, period. McDonagh has the security and commitment needed. The final year features a modified no-trade clause. McDonagh submits a list of 12 teams. Alas, that does not kick in until January 16th, 2026.
The extension and down that long and winding road
McDonagh is currently 29-years old. When the extension kicks in, he will 30. Every player does not age the same, but the defenseman will be 37 when his extension ends. The question becomes what happens to Tampa during this new deal.
Steve Yzerman emphasized a win-now approach, but there is a limited time window. How Yzerman negotiates or tries to extend this window will be vital.
No one quite knows when a decline will occur. The prime is now and even that is fading. That presents a contentious debate as a team still has the Nikita Kucherov contract to deal with next summer.
Will Yzerman acquire Erik Karlsson? That would buffer McDonagh a good bit in the later years of the deal because a decline will be very real.
Some final notes
Among other things, we can use visuals from Bill Comeau here to help. McDonagh remains one of the best shot at penalty differential (88th percentile). His game score suffered along with possession metrics because of the New York Rangers and injury. There are a lot of good numbers here. Age curves are a fickle thing. How these numbers regress is a great question. They may not right away, depending on whom Yzerman can acquire during this extension. After that, it is a question.
He is a player capable of playing tough minutes still. Fortunately, a healthy McDonagh should make this extension look decent for the first couple seasons. The nights of playing 25+ minutes are long over which is great news. However, can he keep performing at a good level when his defensive zone starts are in the 92nd percentile? It’s a great question.
McDonagh’s ability to make quicker decisions can be questioned in later years of this extension. Finally, sheltering his decline will be a priority in years 5-7. There also exists a propensity for possible injuries. Sadly, the Tampa Bay rearguard may fall victim to playing more from instinct than actual ability. That never ages well.