James Hagens entered the 2025 NHL Draft cycle with sky-high expectations. After leading Team USA to gold at the 2024 U18 World Championship and dominating the USHL, many considered him the frontrunner for the top selection. His speed, puck skills, and offensive instincts stood out among his peers, placing him on early watchlists as a potential No. 1 pick.
During his freshman season at Boston College, Hagens continued to display elite talent. He averaged a point per game and played critical minutes on one of the NCAA’s strongest teams. He also centered Team USA’s top line at the World Juniors, contributing to another gold-medal run. Over the years, Hagens has consistently been one of the most dangerous offensive players in his age group, particularly noted for his skating and puck control.
However, his position among the top prospects has been reevaluated as the draft approaches. Despite his resume and raw talent, teams have begun to prioritize different player profiles. This shift is also reflected in betting trends, with Missouri sportsbooks adjusting their odds to favor more physically imposing, two-way players expected to make an immediate NHL impact.
Comparisons and Questions
Hagen’s freshman year was solid, but recent draft classes have set a high bar. Players like Macklin Celebrini and Adam Fantilli delivered exceptional collegiate performances, making their NHL projections undeniable. Hagens’ season more closely resembles earlier top-five picks like Matty Beniers or Kent Johnson—productive and skilled, but not dominant at every level.
Hagens often outperformed his peers throughout international competitions, who now rank above him. He was more effective than Porter Marton at this year’s World Juniors and had the edge in prior matchups against Michael Misa. Even at the U18 Worlds, where Caleb Desnoyers played a minor role for Team Canada, Hagens was a top-line presence for the U.S.
Despite these consistent showings, scouts have voiced concerns. While undeniably talented, there were games at Boston College where Hagens was less noticeable at even strength. He sometimes struggled to battle through contact and establish a presence in the interior against larger, more physical defenders. He didn’t produce as many goals as expected during the season.
At just under six feet tall and with a finesse-driven game, his long-term, top-line NHL center projection is uncertain. Though his work rate was solid—especially during the World Juniors—it was not a defining characteristic that might offset size or scoring concerns.
Some scouts argue that his stats and visibility might have remained dominant if Hagens had stayed in junior hockey rather than playing NCAA competition. However, NHL teams increasingly value two-way reliability and physical tools in early draft picks.
The Value of Profile Versatility
A key reason Hagens has been leapfrogged by players such as Misa, Martone, Desnoyers, and Anton Frondell is the perceived NHL translatability of their profiles. These players offer size, two-way reliability, and positional versatility—many projecting as NHL centers with physical strength.
Even if Hagens is viewed as the most purely skilled offensive forward in the class, decision-makers are factoring in traits that influence winning in the postseason. This broader draft trend reflects how NHL organizations assess value. Teams are less likely to use a top pick on a smaller forward who might not project as a full-time center, especially if that player isn’t seen as elite defensively or physically assertive.
The Islanders’ Unique Draft Position
The New York Islanders unexpectedly won the NHL Draft Lottery this year, landing the No. 1 pick. Given Hagen’s Long Island roots and early hype as the top prospect, his name immediately circulated among fans and media. He grew up supporting the Islanders and the symbolic connection to the franchise holds emotional appeal—particularly after the loss of a former No. 1 pick, John Tavares, in free agency years ago.
However, that emotional narrative does not align with how most NHL teams view the draft hierarchy. As it stands, defenseman Matthew Schaefer has emerged as the consensus top prospect among league evaluators. A smaller group considers Michael Misa a possible alternative, but Schaefer’s stock has risen significantly during the year.
Schaefer, a 6-foot-2 defender with elite skating ability, has consistently dominated when healthy. His ability to manage the game from the blue line, compete at both ends, and project as a potential 25-minute-per-game workhorse makes him an attractive option. While his offensive upside is respectable rather than elite, his overall package is what NHL teams crave—a high-floor, high-impact player with playoff reliability.
Schaefer’s development arc also matters. Though Hagens was once considered his equal, Schaefer is nearly a year younger and has shown sharper growth over the past season. For most scouts and executives, the choice at No. 1 has become apparent.
Emotional Appeal vs. Competitive Priority
If the Islanders were drafting second or third, the case for selecting Hagens would be more plausible. He remains a high-ceiling forward with the potential to lead a team offensively. In terms of pure offensive upside, he could become a 60- to 80-point NHL contributor. A reasonable comparison might be William Nylander—skilled, dangerous and productive in the proper context.
Yet, taking him first overall, especially with a consensus player like Schaefer available, would signal a prioritization of narrative over competitive logic. While the organization might still remember losing Tavares and being overshadowed by the Rangers, it is no longer the same team. The Islanders have achieved playoff success in recent years, have stable ownership, and a state-of-the-art arena in UBS. Their decisions must reflect that progress.
Choosing Hagens for his hometown ties would be a gamble. He is not guaranteed to remain with the franchise long-term simply because of his background. Meanwhile, bypassing a defenseman of Schaefer’s caliber could have long-term implications on team competitiveness.
Conclusion: A Difficult but Necessary Decision
James Hagens is a premier offensive talent and deserves recognition as a top-tier prospect. He could still become the most dynamic forward from this draft class. However, in the current landscape, where physicality, defensive responsibility, and role flexibility matter more than ever, Matthew Schaefer presents a more complete profile.
For the Islanders, the logical course is clear. As tempting as writing a storybook draft narrative with Hagens may be, the organization must prioritize building a championship-contending roster. That begins with selecting the best all-around player—and this year, that player is Schaefer.