With the free agent class mostly settled into new homes, it’s time to start speculating on next year’s UFA group. While the 2014-15 cohort lacked elite impact players, next season’s list of potential free agents offers star power at many positions – if teams let these players get that far.
Here you’ll find a look at the top ten free agent forwards for the 2015-16 free agent frenzy.
The ranking will be based on a combination of four factors. First, the overall likelihood that the player will actually reach free agency. While difficult to judge with certainty, the list is more meaningful if it highlights the players most likely to actually switch teams next July. Second, the player’s overall skill set will be considered – their individual production and their impact on the play of teammates. Third, the player’s likely contract value will factor in. Fourth, age considerations will play a role in moving names up and down the list.
** Please note the order: the likelihood that a player will actually reach free agency takes precedence over all other factors – keep this in mind.**
On with the countdown.
10. Steven Stamkos – Tampa Bay Lightning
Centre – 25 years old – $7.5 million
Likelihood of free agency: 1/10
During his tenure as GM of the Tampa Bay Lightning, Steve Yzerman has shown great skill through key hirings (coach Jon Cooper), signings (Anton Stralman), and trades (managing the trade demand by Martin St. Louis and not losing the deal). Yzerman’s team is loaded with talent and fresh off of an appearance in the Stanley Cup Final.
Due to his strong management record, don’t expect Yzerman to allow one of the game’s greatest snipers to sneak away for no return. Yzerman has said that re-signing Stamkos is his clear priority and he’ll be highly motivated to keep his young star in Tampa Bay. Due to the likelihood that Stamkos stays in Tampa, he slides to 10th on the list.
But, Stamkos has allowed trickles of wonder on whether or not he might leave. It’s possible. And even faint possibility is worth considering for one of the world’s best offensive players. The Lightning are tight to the cap now and have a number of RFA issues to deal with next offseason, which stand in the way of finding additional cash for a Stamkos deal. If rumours of a Stamkos departure grow at all throughout the year, he ascends to the top of this list in short order.
What would Stamkos offer to a new team as a UFA?
At 25 years old, Stamkos is in the prime of his career and is an elite offensive producer. He’s scored 498 points in 492 career games – an incredible amount in the current NHL scoring environment. His goal-scoring, primary assists, and primary points are all elite and his puck possession work holds up reasonably well for an offensive player of his calibre. Virtually any NHL team would have to consider moving contracts out to make room for the star centreman. Stamkos would command maximum offers from a variety of teams, including the Toronto Maple Leafs among others.
Still, until Yzerman hints at a stall in negotiations or Stamkos indicates a desire to test the market, Stamkos’ availability remains unlikely.
9. Anze Kopitar – Los Angeles Kings
Centre – 27 years old – $6.8 million
Likelihood of free agency: 2/10
Kopitar is the long-tenured anchor of the Kings squad. He’s collected an impressive 610 points in 683 games in L.A. and is lauded league-wide for his two-way defensive play. With Jeff Carter supporting the offense, Drew Doughty and Jake Muzzin on defense, and Jonathan Quick in goal, the Kings have a highly competitive core built around their number one pivot and likely still within reach of another Stanley Cup. GM Dean Lombardi is firm in his belief that Kopitar is part of the Kings’ future and until this stance softens, or Kopitar expresses a desire to test the market, Kopitar’s FA chances are slim.
However, the Kings’ cap situation is in a little turmoil as the Mike Richards buyout looms large. The Kings do have a little money available to give Kopitar a raise, but newly-acquired Milan Lucic will need a new contract as well. If Kopitar is intent on earning a major raise, he may look elsewhere for a long-term, big money deal.
What does Kopitar offer as a UFA?
Kopitar is elite in every aspect of the game. His individual production is first-line quality and his impact on teammates is among the best in the NHL. Kopitar contributes to the team’s offense and defense in equal measure and is a key piece of the Kings’ suffocating defensive style. An all-around player in his prime, Kopitar is the type of big, sturdy, two-way star that every NHL team craves.
8. Eric Staal – Carolina Hurricanes
Centre – 30 years old – $8.25 million
Likelihood of free agency: 3/10
With almost 900 games played between the regular season and the playoffs, 30-year-old Eric Staal is in the back half of an impressive NHL career. He has won a Stanley Cup, has been the Hurricanes’ captain since 2010, and won Olympic gold with Canada. He’s regarded as a leader and is the prototypical first-line centre with a big frame, leadership, and offensive contributions. He is the face of the Hurricanes franchise.
However, Staal’s points-per-game total has been trending down. He posted 0.7 ppg last season, his lowest mark since his rookie year in 2003-04. Staal has many miles on his legs and is probably overpaid at $8.5 million, the 11th-highest salary in the NHL. With Cam Ward due to become an FA next summer as well, GM Ron Francis may elect to re-shape the Hurricanes roster completely, moving on from these two long-time roster staples.
What would another team get by signing Eric Staal in free agency?
Staal remains a clear first-line talent in terms of individual production. He has always had a goal-scoring touch and his direct offensive contributions (primary assists, primary points) remain upper-tier. Staal’s possession work is quietly solid as well, as the rangy pivot continues to be a positive impact on his linemates’ shot generation.
In terms of managing chances against, Staal’s work leaves a lot to be desired. Whether he stays in Carolina or moves elsewhere, a dependable winger (think, Justin Williams or Brad Marchand types) would do wonders to help reduce shot attempts and goals against while Staal is on the ice.
In the end, Eric Staal would likely command $8.5 million or more on the open market and may be asked to take less money to remain with the Hurricanes. Whether or not Staal wishes to finish his career with his brother Jordan in Carolina remains to be seen.
7. Jiri Hudler – Calgary Flames
Left Wing – 31 years old – $4 million
Likelihood of free agency: 5/10
Prior to last year, Hudler had cracked the 20-goal plateau twice in his 10 NHL seasons and had a career-high of 57 points. With 31 goals and 76 points in Calgary last season, the Lady Byng trophy-winner shattered his career marks and posted a career year. The Czech-native will earn $4 million in 2015-16 and, if he produces another 70-point campaign, Hudler will likely seek a significant raise.
Known as an instinctual and creative sharpshooter, Hudler’s offensive profile is borderline elite. Individually, Hudler is a clear first-line talent who contributes directly to offensive production for his team. He has also demonstrated a very reasonable ability to manage shot attempts and goals against though he has struggled historically to generate a high quantity of Corsi events for himself and his linemates. The biggest knocks on Hudler next summer will be his age and his lack of history as an elite NHL scorer. Still, with offense in high demand, Hudler won’t struggle to secure a raise into the $5 million per year range or more if he reaches free agency.
6. Kyle Okposo – New York Islanders
Right Wing – 27 years old – $2.8 million
Likelihood of free agency: 5/10
At 6’0, 220 lbs., Kyle Okposo is the type of scoring power forward that teams love to pair with a playmaking centre. Okposo is known for a tenacious game, a heavy shot, a goal scorer’s mentality, and swift skating abilities. At only 27 years old, Okposo is just entering his prime and the winger will certainly be looking for an increase on his $2.8 million salary.
Will the Islanders allow Okposo to leave? The Islanders will have the cap space to afford Okposo a raise. But the team may be reluctant to invest in the winger’s potential. Okposo has played more than 70 games three times in eight years and his focus is inconsistent throughout the season.
Okposo’s advanced stats show that the Minnesota-native is a first-line talent individually. His primary assists and primary points per 60 minutes are elite, suggesting that Okposo simply needs to stay on the ice more consistently to pile up greater counting stats. Defensively, Okposo is a liability. To maximize his utility, a team would be wise to pair the winger with strong puck-managing linemates to take advantage of Okposo’s excellent scoring upside. It would not surprise to see Okposo double his current yearly salary with his next contract.
Written by Sean Tierney, who can be found @SeanTierneyTSS
