With free agency looming, NHL teams will finish their player searches and settle on a UFA they feel can fill a lineup need. Following the yearly offseason chorus, GMs will announce their need for “help up the middle,” “scoring on the wing,” or “bottom-six depth.
In years past, marginal skaters, or skaters who had just enjoyed a season fueled by luck, could count on big spenders like the Toronto Maple Leafs and the New York Rangers to check in on a player’s point totals and starting signing cheques. Now, with a wide variety of advanced statistics, management teams are better able to evaluate talent. Shot suppression, points per 60, and more allow GMs to hunt for the next Daniel Winnik. In the salary cap era, cost-effective forwards who manage the puck well are vital.
Listed below are the top five UFA forwards that may fly under-the-radar who are set to become available on July 1st based on advanced stats. Their point totals may not stand out but their cost-effective and positive teammate impacts make these skaters the best of the UFA forwards class.
5. Martin Erat – RW
Capitals fans still loathe the deal that brought in Erat from the Nashville Predators in exchange for rookie star Filip Forsberg. While 32 points in 79 games isn’t much to get excited about, Erat’s modern stats show a veteran skater with teammate-boosting skills.
While Erat has always been a positive influence in a lineup, last season was particularly strong as he bettered the offensive and defensive play of his teammates. His shot suppression skills are elite and his value as a passer remains very strong.
Last season, Erat was paid $2.25 million (cap hit of $4.5 mil). The NHL average salary is about $2.5 million. If the 33-year-old Erat is willing to play for what he earned last season on a short-term deal, he represents a cost-effective free agent option for a team light on the right wing.
4. Matt Cullen – Centre
At 38-years-old, Cullen is surely ending the end of his playing career. Despite his age, Cullen has remained a highly useful forward. He posted only 25 points in 62 games last year but remains capable of producing strong results in advanced stats.
Throughout his career, Cullen has generally been a positive influence on his linemates both offensively and defensively. Last year was no exception as Cullen posted his second-best season in terms of offensive/defensive influence.
While his puck management remains serviceable, Cullen continues to be a sneaky source of offense. His per 60 rates last season point to a highly effective scorer capable of producing excellent assist and point totals.
Cullen earned $4 million last season ($3.5 mil cap hit). If he is willing to take a pay cut into the $2-3 million range, Cullen could bolster the lineup of a team bound for the NHL Playoffs next season.
3. Viktor Stalberg – LW
Recently bought out after a disappointing 10 points in 25 games, the 29-year-old Stalberg still carries some value for a team looking to add a player with untapped scoring touch. At 6’3, 210 lbs, Stalberg remains a big, speedy winger who could prove valuable next season.
Stalberg has spent his entire career as a non-factor in terms of offensive and defensive influence for his teammates, though he has registered some positive seasons. His linemate impact doesn’t increase his worth but neither does it compromise his value.
Individually, Stalberg has been very useful in limited minutes. He is very capable of shot suppression and produces second-line level offense in goals and assists in limited minutes. For a team looking to add some secondary scoring, Stalberg could be a useful addition.
Though set to earn $3 million next season, Stalberg was recently placed on waivers for the purpose of being bought out by the Predators. He’s likely to come cheap.
2. Michael Frolik – RW
At 27-years-old, Frolik is just entering his prime years after developing into a highly useful player with the Winnipeg Jets. The winger produced 42 points in 82 games last season, clearing the 200 shot plateau in the process. However, Frolik’s best attributes are revealed with a look to his advanced stats.
Throughout his career, Frolik has almost always been a positive offensive and defensive influence, boosting teammates to better shot generation and suppression. Individually, Frolik has developed into a highly useful forward. His assists and points per 60 are second-line quality and is shot production is trending towards elite status.
Frolik earned $3.3 million last season. Entering his prime years, it’s reasonable to expect Frolik to be hunting for a pay raise. If Frolik settles somewhere in the $4 million per year range, he would be a great addition as a second-line RWer.
1. Justin Williams – RW
Williams has fashioned an outstanding NHL career. With a full 82-game season next year, Williams will reach the 1000-game plateau. In a full campaign last year, Williams posted 41 posted. At 33-years-old, he shows few signs of losing any effectiveness on the ice.
Williams has long been an advanced stats darling. In his 14-year career, Williams has always been a highly positive influence on his linemates both offensively and defensively. Individually, Williams’ shot generation and suppression is elite. However, he also adds second line goals and assists per 60 and is a top-tier shot creator.
Williams earned $3.05 million last season (cap hit of $3.65 mil). If the veteran skater costs anything less than $4 million per year this offseason, a playoff-contending club will receive a huge advanced metrics star at a very reasonable cost.
Written by Sean Tierney, who can be found @SeanTierneyTSS
