Toronto Maple Leafs 2015-16 Season Primer

Looking at the Toronto Maple Leafs heading into this season – outlook, potential lines, roster, top prospects, draft history, stats and season schedule.

Projected 2015-16 Range: Last in the Atlantic, last in the Eastern Conference, 29th in the NHL
2014-15 record: 30-44-8, 68 points (7th in the Atlantic, 15th in the Eastern Conference, 27th overall)
2014-15 Outcome: Missed playoffs

Total Cap Hit: $71,014,999
Total Player Salaries: $82,957,500
Cap Space: $385,001

Source: General Fanager

In: Michael Grabner, LW/RW (T – NYI), Taylor Beck, RW/LW (T – Nas), Shawn Matthias, LW/C (FA – Van), Byron Froese, C (FA-Minors), Daniel Winnik, W/C (FA – Pit), Mark Arcobello, W/C (FA – Ari), Scott Harrington, D (T – Pit), Kasperi Kapanen, RW/LW (T – Pit), Nick Spaling, C/LW (T – Pit), PA Parenteau, RW (FA – Mtl), Matt Hunwick, D (FA – NYR), Martin Marincin, D (T – Edm), Zach Hyman, C/RW (T – FLA), Mike Babcock, Head Coach (Named)

Out: Troy Bodie, RW (Retired), Christopher Gibson, G (T – NYI), Matthew Finn, D (T – NYI),Tom Nilsson, D (T – NYI), Taylor Beck, RW/LW (T – NYI), Carter Verhaeghe, C (T – NYI), Frazer McLaren, LW (FA – SJ), Zach Sill, LW/C (FA – Wsh), Jamie Devane, LW (T – Nas), Andrew MacWilliam, D (FA – Wpg), Trevor Smith, C/LW (FA-Europe), Tyler Biggs, RW/C (T – Pit), Tim Erixon, D (T – Pit), Phil Kessel, RW (T – Pit), Brad Ross, LW (T – Edm), Greg McKegg, C (T – FLA), Brandon Kozun, RW (FA-Europe), Joakim Lindstrom, W/C (FA-Europe), David Nonis, GM (Fired), Peter Horachek, Head Coach (Fired)

Source: Sports Forecaster

Outlook for the Season:

In a way, the pressure is finally off.

After years of struggling to grab a low-seed playoff spot with an aging, poorly constructed roster, President Brendan Shanahan and his management team (now including Lou Lamoriello, Kyle Dubas, Mark Hunter, Jacques Lemaire, and Brandon Pridham) have finally embraced a full-on, bottom-up rebuild. The team plummeted to the bottom of the standings last season, then parted ways with star winger Phil Kessel and every player another team was willing to take on in exchange for a draft pick.

Now, two separate ideas will run simultaneously. On one hand, the talented stable of prospects in the AHL will be allowed to spend the year in the minors growing together. William Nylander, Kasperi Kapanen, Connor Brown, and others are the future in Toronto and they won’t be rushed to the NHL.

On the other hand, the Leafs have stocked the NHL roster with short-term veteran contracts, creating a sort of caretaker lineup that permits the Leafs to keep their youngsters in the minors while giving veterans the chance to audition for jobs with Cup contenders in March.

It’s an interesting mix and the formula isn’t likely to add up to many wins for the Leafs in 2015-16.

Based on the current roster, Leftwinglock.com projects Toronto’s lineup to look like this:

At forward, look for Nazem Kadri to finally take over as the team’s number one centre. He’s always been regarded as a supremely creative offensive thinker, with flair, soft hands, and excellent skating. His underlying stats support his promotion to the top line:

His rate stats show he’s a top-flight offensive forward. His shot generation is strong but his work preventing chances for opponents will require more work as his ice time increases.

Saddled with the unenviable task of replacing Kessel as the team’s top option at right wing, P.A. Parenteau has flashed excellent skill in the NHL.

Despite an awful year in Montreal, Parenteau’s rate stats show a top-line star across all categories. If Parenteau stays healthy and capitalizes on his increased role with the Leafs, he’s unlikely to be in Toronto next March. Many teams will be in the hunt for top-six scoring options at the 2016 trade deadline.

Signed to a one-year, $2.3 million deal, 27-year-old Shawn Matthias joins his hometown Leafs looking to re-establish his value as an NHLer. Matthias boasts one clear skill that will likely endear him to fans in Toronto:

Matthias is a first-line quality goal-scorer, per minute of ice time. If second line minutes and a chance on the powerplay in Toronto, Matthias is poised to post his first 20-goal season in the NHL. Matthias is known for his leadership qualities and coach-friendly attitude. Still only 27 years old, he may be playing for an extension in Toronto rather than a ticket out of town.

On defense, head coach Mike Babcock is charged with putting “the muzzle on Phaneuf,” encouraging the still-salvageable defender to roam less, limiting his mobility issues. Look for Phaneuf’s minutes to be reduced as youngsters Jake Gardiner and Morgan Rielly lay claim to the top jobs on the Leafs defense.

One player with the potential to surprise and claim meaningful minutes is bargain signee Matt Hunwick.

Though he’s unlikely to contribute much offensively, Hunwick’s possession work is exquisite. If his puck management skills transfer over from his time with the Rangers, he could become a quietly efficient top-four defender for the Leafs.

In net, the tandem of Jonathan Bernier and James Reimer have effectively weathered the storm of shots they’ve faced in Toronto. Both have posted above average adjusted save percentages despite facing well above average shot totals.

For all the issues that the Leafs are likely to have on the ice next year, their goaltending isn’t likely to be a problem.

Trending Up:

Dion Phaneuf – known for his offensive instincts, physicality, and booming point shot, Phaneuf has become the icon of ineptitude in Toronto. Despite the increasingly glaring mistakes in his game, the Red Wings were interested in bringing the offensive blueliner on board last season. This suggests that Mike Babcock may believe he can rehabilitate Phaneuf’s value. The Leafs captain has bottomed out defensively, so an improvement under Babcock is possible.

Trending Down:

Joffrey Lupul – the oft-injured winger turns 32 before the season starts and hasn’t played anything near a full season since 2008-09 with the Flyers. He still possesses good hands, a quick shot, and offensive instincts. Still, Lupul’s play and health are too inconsistent. With the Leafs undergoing a full rebuild of the roster, Lupul won’t be around by the time the team is ready to compete again. Look for the winger to be marginalized then traded.

Trade Deadline Outlook:  

This is a team built for selling. Current roster players like PA Parenteau, Joffrey Lupul, Tyler Bozak, Nick Spaling, and Leo Komarov are all primed for deals to contenders at the next trade deadline. If Brad Boyes, Devin Setoguchi, or Curtis Glencross succeed in securing a roster spot, expect these veterans to be moved for additional draft picks too. The Leafs are a team built to lose and are certain to be seller next February.

Projected 2015-16 Range: Last in the Atlantic, last in the Eastern Conference, 29th in the NHL

Written by Sean Tierney, who can be found @SeanTierneyTSS

Maple Leafs: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects and Draft History | Stats | Schedule

Potential line combinations, defensive pairings, and goalies.

James van Riemsdyk – Nazem Kadri – P.A. Parenteau
Joffrey Lupul – Tyler Bozak – Richard Panik
Shawn Matthias – Peter Holland – Michael Grabner
Daniel Winnik – Nick Spaling – Leo Komarov
Devin Setoguchi – Mark Arcobello

Morgan Rielly – Dion Phaneuf
Jake Gardiner – Roman Polak
Martin Marincin – Stephane Robidas
Matt Hunwick

Jonathan Bernier
James Reimer

Maple Leafs: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects and Draft History | Stats | Schedule

Some top Toronto Maple Leafs prospect lists heading into the season.

* Different sites have different guidelines for who is a ‘prospect.’ Dobber Prospects bases their rankings on future fantasy value.

A look at the Toronto Maple Leafs drafting from 2010 to 2015.

Maple Leafs: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects and Draft History | Stats | Schedule

Toronto Maple Leafs 2014-15 player stats.

Maple Leafs: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects and Draft History | Stats | Schedule

A look at the Toronto Maple Leafs 2015-16 schedule.

Maple Leafs: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects and Draft History | Stats | Schedule