Dallas Stars 2015-16 Season Primer

Looking at the Dallas Stars heading into this season – outlook, potential lines, roster, top prospects, draft history, stats and season schedule.

2014-15 record: 41-31-10, 92 points
Where they finished: 6^th in the Central Division, 10^th in the Western Conference, 19^th in the league

Player Salaries: $69,175,833 (24)
Cap Payroll: $69,099,166
Bonuses: $1,200,000
Cap Space: $2,300,834
Forwards: $40,000,000 (14)
Defensemen: $18,185,000 (8)
Goalies: $10,400,000 (2)

In: Johnny Oduya, D (FA – Chi), Stephen Johns, D (T – Chi), Patrick Sharp, LW/RW (T – Chi), Antti Niemi, G (T – SJ)

Out: Ryan Garbutt, RW/LW (T – Chi), Trevor Daley, D (T – Chi), Shawn Horcoff, C/LW (FA – Ana), Jhonas Enroth, G (FA – LA), Cameron Gaunce, D (FA – FLA), Jussi RynNas), G (FA-Europe)
Source: Sports Forecaster

Outlook for the Season:

No one was more disappointed in the Stars 14/15 season than Captain Jamie Benn. Moments after winning the Art Ross in the last game of the year on a 4 point night, Benn took the microphone and apologized to a roaring crowd for not making the playoffs. This summer, the Dallas captain and his trusty sidekick Tyler Seguin have emphasized that they’re going back to basics – focusing on defensive play to complement their highly skilled offensive instincts.

GM Jim Nill has been busy, too, making some blockbuster moves. The first was so far under the radar that the Stars were able to announce it live on Periscope at a fan event; Nill had brought Patrick Sharp and prospect Stephen Johns to Dallas. In exchange, he moved out a possession problem defender Trevor Daley, and a frequent hot-head, winger Ryan Garbutt. Despite a career low even strength Shooting Percentage last season, Sharp is still considered an elite top 6 talent. Coach Lindy Ruff has already mentioned he wants to try out the winger with Benn and Seguin, and put him on the top power play unit, too. Johns, on the other hand, will probably continue to develop in the Stars’ AHL system.

One of the most overused narratives coming out of the Stars’ disappointing season was the “Dallas is just terrible at defense” angle. While the Stars posted some shameful shots against rates early in the season, they actually had some of the best defensive metrics from December on. Still, that didn’t stop Nill from bringing on veteran defender Johnny Oduya at $3.75 million for 2 years. The Swedish defenseman is expected to shore up a secondary pairing that last season was just Daley and a rotating cast of rookies.

This year, Dallas is still running very young on defense, with 4 of 8 defenders at 24 years of age or less, but don’t expect the same lackluster performance this October. John Klingberg, who came in 5^th in Calder voting, returns with partner Alex Goligoski to provide a stabilizing influence on offense, and Patrik Nemeth, who missed most of last year due to injury, is expected to use his size (6’3”, 235lbs) to make a big impact on the blue line.

The root of most of Dallas’ problems last season originated between the pipes. While the defense improved, Kari Lehtonen’s performances remained shaky. In the end, he posted a career low Save Percentage of just 0.903. And he wasn’t helped by his backups; Anders Lindback posted a 0.875, and Jhonas Enroth put up the slightly improved 0.906.

In what is probably one of the most bizarre moves of the offseason, the Stars signed Antti Niemi to a 3 year, $13.5 million contract. The intent is to have Lehtonen and Niemi split the starts, so that both net minders are better rested for the Stars’ brutal travel schedule (away games are a minimum 1080 mile round trip). Having that much of the salary cap ($10.4 million) tied up in goaltending is “unconventional” to put it nicely, “insane” if tact is abandoned. But with all of their goaltending prospects still at least year away from the NHL, Nill saw no choice but to over-correct on the position.

There are a lot of unanswered questions about the Stars team – will this goalie tandem work out? Will the defense continue to progress? Has Jamie Benn’s offseason hip surgery set him back? But it’s hard to look at this team and not call them playoff ready.

Trending Up:

Valeri Nichushkin: Limited to just 8 games last season, Nichushkin has nowhere to go but up. After a successful rookie season with 34 points in 79 games, the first round pick saw his sophomore year cut short by hip surgery. This year, look for him to be strong out of the gate, slotting into the top six. Ruff has already expressed his desire to have Nichushkin play on Spezza’s wing (opposite Ales Hemsky) so the former Senators captain can act as both center and mentor to the young Russian.

Spezza and Hemsky were most effective last year when joined by the net crashing Erik Cole. If Nichushkin can harness his accurate shot and his 6’3”, 205lb frame to wreak havoc in the slot, it should work out well for everyone. Well, everyone in victory green, anyway.

Trending Down:

Jamie Oleksiak: On a defense already jam packed with young talent, and prospects Julius Honka and Esa Lindell waiting in the wings, former first round pick Oleksiak is entering a “put up or shut up” year with the Stars. He spent much of last season bouncing between Austin (where the Stars’ AHL affiliate is located) and Dallas, but by the end of the year had seen most of his NHL minutes eaten by Jyrki Jokipakka.

Now that the Stars are going into the season with 8 defenders, it means Oleksiak will have to fight even harder for his roster spot, especially since he’s lost his waiver exempt status. If he continues to coast, the 6’7” defenseman could see himself as part of a trade package in March.

Trade Deadline Outlook:

Unless decimated by injury, look for Dallas to stay quiet around the trade deadline. Stocked with defensive talent, the Stars may be open to offers, especially for picks and prospects, but the big moves have already been made.

Projected 2015-16 Range: Playoff Chances: Lock

Written by Carolyn Wilke, who can be found on twitter @Classlicity

Stars: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects | Draft History | Stats | Schedule

Potential line combinations, defensive pairings, and goalies.

Jamie Benn – Tyler Seguin – Patrick Sharp
Valeri Nichushkin – Jason Spezza – Ales Hemsky
Antoine Roussel – Cody Eakin – Brett Ritchie
Travis Moen – Vernon Fiddler – Colton Sceviour
Patrick Eaves

Alex Goligoski – John Klingberg
Johnny Oduya – Jason Demers
Jordie Benn – Patrik Nemeth
Jamie Oleksiak – Jyrki Jokipakka

Antti Niemi
Kari Lehtonen

Stars: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects | Draft History | Stats | Schedule

Some top Dallas Stars prospect lists heading into the season.

* Different sites have different guidelines for who is a ‘prospect.’ 

1. Julius Honka: Defence – 5’11” / 185 lbs – Honka was able to make the transition and turn pro last season as a 19-year old and had an impressive rookie season in Texas scoring 31 points in 68 games. While he is small by NHL standards, his offensive skills and efficiency on the power play should translate to the NHL level. He has a tendency to make poor decisions in the defensive zone without the puck and his lack of size can be a hindrance in clearing the crease. His minus -10 rating may lend Dallas to allow him further seasoning while playing lots of minutes in Texas, as there is no need to rush him given the wealth of prospects Dallas boasts on the blueline.

2. Denis Guryanov: Right Wing – 6’2” / 192 lbs – Guryanov was perhaps the most underrated prospect heading into the 2015 draft. He has blazing speed, good size, and sublime offensive skills. Some scouts believed he should have ranked as high as top five along with name like Mitch Marner and Dylan Strome, and if he had played in the CHL last year he would not have been available to Dallas at 12. He was impressive with Russia in the U18 WJC, scoring six goals and an assist in five games, and should be a lock for the Russian WJC team this year where he could be a standout. He is scheduled to turn pro playing in the KHL this season with Lada.

3. Stephen Johns: Defence – 6’3” / 229 lbs – Known primarily as a physical shut-down defender who is nasty and tough to play against, Johns has also demonstrated his offensive ability in his rookie season in the AHL scoring 21 points in 51 games, with an impressive +30 rating. He improved his performance in the playoffs scoring three goals and four assists in eight games while posting a +4 rating. Johns will see some time in the NHL, but will likely see the bulk of his time in the AHL with Texas.

4. Esa Lindell: Defence – 6’3” / 210 lbs – Lindell is a relatively unknown player in North America, but Stars GM Jim Nill is very high on Lindell, and has high expectations on the big Finish defenceman for his North American debut this season. Lindell had a breakout season in Finland playing with Assat where he scored 14 goals and 21 assists in 57 games. Lindell was also very impressive for Finland at the World Championship playing against NHL talent and scoring a goal and five assists in eight games. He eventually made his debut in the final five games for Texas in the AHL and picked up his first point, an assist. He will play the upcoming season with Texas where he will battle for a top pairing.

5. Jason Dickinson: Centre/Left Wing – 6’2” / 191 lbs – Dickinson is a promising prospect. He was a prolific scorer with Guelph in his OHL career and was the engine behind their Memorial Cup run. He has good size and two-way potential, which should translate well to a depth scoring line option in the NHL in the future. Like many developing prospects, he will need to improve his strength, skating, and consistency, but those are all very correctable deficiencies which he should be able to iron out in time with some AHL seasoning.

Expanded Top 10 Stars prospects with videos and stats can be read here. 

Stars: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects | Draft History | Stats | Schedule

A look at the Dallas Stars drafting from 2010 to 2015.

Stars: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects | Draft History | Stats | Schedule

Dallas Stars 2014-15 player stats.

Stars: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects | Draft History | Stats | Schedule

A look at the Dallas Stars 2015-16 schedule.

Stars: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects | Draft History | Stats | Schedule