July 1st starts the free agent frenzy. Will Mats Zuccarello of the Dallas Stars make it to the window dressing stage where teams interview him? It’s a great question. Let’s look at what he has done this season and what that may mean going forward.
Mats Zuccarello’s turnaround started with Mika Zibanejad
Zuccarello opened the season with ten points in 12 contests and played nearly 20 minutes of ice time a night. The thought process was this could be another 60-plus point season for the forward. Then, injury and inconsistency crept in. This was exacerbated by a bevy of trade rumors and those would only become louder.
On almost a whim, David Quinn paired Zuccarello and Mika Zibanejad together after the New Year. The pair paid dividends immediately as Zuccarello averaged more than a point a game until he would eventually be traded. The forward even fired an astonishing 3.3 shots per game in February which was well above his career numbers. It turns out Mika Zibanejad is quite the catalyst for playmaking. Imagine that!
Now, the expectation was that a rejuvenated Zuccarello would fetch a nice return from a team. It turns out it did as New York traded the winger to the Dallas Stars. The conditional picks, at least one of them, may turn out to come to fruition. More on that later…
The Dallas Stars impression
Unfortunately, the winger played a limited amount of time in Dallas. In his first game with the Stars, Zuccarello blocked a shot which broke a bone in his arm early in the second period against the Chicago Blackhawks. He basically played one token game at the end of the season.
That game against Chicago revealed a lot of what Dallas had been missing. Having a forward who could play with Jamie Benn or Tyler Seguin like Zuccarello was eye-opening. Zuccarello tallied three points (goal, two assists) before his injury and that Dallas second line looked electric. Dallas featured two very good scoring lines for a fleeting moment.
By the playoffs, Zuccarello returned but was not 100%. Despite the persistent arm issues, the forward managed 11 points in 13 games and provided Dallas with that secondary punch it sorely missed. The team and player found a clear fit with each other.
Zuccarello’s relative possession metrics were several percentage points above average for Dallas. The winger’s playoff run featured times where he was “rested” because of the arm. There were notable dips in ice time and even then Mats Zuccarello’s impact was undeniable.
What does it all mean for Mats Zuccarello now?
According to Evolving Wild, the forward’s projected salary is approximately four years at an AAV of about $6.2 million. Oddly, his 40 points in 48 games could have been more. Some hesitation stems from the fact that Zuccarello is 31. However, the production and potential realized in Dallas intrigue many.
Then, we present Sean Tierney’s charts from Tableau. Zuccarello ranks in the average category for several metrics — including Corsi relative and player expected goals at 5 on 5. His even-strength points per 60 lines up with players like Mika Zibanejad and Kevin Hayes among others.
Also, note that performance usage is accurate. There was this feeling that Zuccarello could easily thrive in Dallas and that theory turned into fact. Needless to say, the Dallas Stars were left with quite an impression — albeit a small preview.
It is the main reason why that the forward could get $6 million AAV in his next deal. On the other hand, there are reports out there that Zuccarello may be willing to take less to stay in Dallas.
#MatsZuccarello og #Stars nærmer seg en kontrakt som skal være verd rundt $4.5M. Lengde diskuteres enda. pic.twitter.com/9sHFuWX2LH
— NHLNorge (@NHL_Norge) June 15, 2019
Therefore, here lies the ballpark figure of $4.25-4.75 million AAV that sites have been centering on. Roughly translated this tweet has Dallas around that $4.5 million figure but the term is still an issue. Dollars could still go up some depending on the years of the deal. The little question exists that if Zuccarello tested the market, he could garner a $6+ million AAV from some team.
Welcome to crazy town as the contracts start getting formed and signed. With the Jordan Eberle deal at $5.5 million AAV at five years, is that a model for Zuccarello? It sounds close, right?
Into The 2019 NHL Unrestricted Free Agent Class: Jordan Eberle
