Veteran blueliner Toby Enstrom holds all the cards. If he’s willing to waive his no movement clause the Jets can protect seven forwards, three defensemen and a goalie. If not, unless they are willing to forgo $4.2M-plus in cap space through 2019 by buying him out, they’ll protect four defensemen, four skaters and a goalie. Rumor is he doesn’t want to leave Winnipeg, so don’t count on it going down smoothly.
Forward Decisions
The Jets have a ton of high-quality forwards and fortunately they don’t need to protect most of them since they are so young. Nikolaj Ehlers, Patrik Laine, Kyle Connor, Jack Roslovic, Nic Petan and Brendan Lemieux all evade expansion exposure requirements. Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele, Bryan Little and Mathieu Perreault are the top four that, lacking a trade or other deal, will likely be protected.
Is protecting three remaining forwards worth a pricey buyout? Ultimately we’re talking about Shawn Matthias, Adam Lowry and Joel Armia, as well as RFAs Marko Dano and Andrew Copp whom Winnipeg can prevent Vegas from wooing during their early negotiation window. With all those prospects wanting an NHL shot, I don’t think so.
At 6-5, 210-pounds Lowry led the team in hits last year with 216, chipping in a respectable 15 goals and 14 assists. The 24-year-old center is effective in a bottom-six, penalty killing role with an increasingly defensive emphasis, as his offensive zone starts dropped to 39.56% in 2016-17. Not a bad complimentary piece for a squad full of snipers.
Also 24, Buffalo’s 2011 first-round selection Armia is big at 6-3, 205 with a power game at right wing that hasn’t really clicked at the NHL level yet. His possession skills aren’t great, and ten goals with nine assists in 57 games was a disappointment last season, but like Lowry he contributes well on the defensive end and penalty kill. His four shorthanded goals tied for second-best in the league.
Matthias, at age 29 fits more of the journeyman depth forward profile who doesn’t score much and was injured for much of last year. His $2.125M cap hit for one remaining contractual year makes the 6-4, 231-pound left wing more expensive and expendable than Armia ($925,000) and Lowry ($1.125M).
I’m not sure they eat Enstrom’s cap hit, nor say goodbye to the lifelong Jet/Thrasher entering a contract year for those three. If healthy, he should be a valuable piece on their thin blueline.
Dealing with RFAs Andrew Copp and Marko Dano should test GM Kevin Cheveldayoff’s negotiation skills. Both are young, promising forwards although Dano probably has a higher ceiling and left unprotected, Vegas will have a 72-hour first crack at signing them when their exclusive free-agent negotiation period opens June 18.
Defense Decisions
Dustin Byuglien and Jacob Trouba are no-brainers to protect with significant value. Having completed his rookie year in addition to a lone 2015-16 contest, Josh Morrissey is safe as he doesn’t meet exposure requirements. Tyler Myers, contributes solid depth and scoring potential (nine goals, 18 assists in his only full Jet campaign) and a lanky, 6-8, 229-pound body for opponents to contend with. While limited to 11 games last year due to injuries and the premature birth of his son, and generally falling short of his 2010 Calder Trophy-winning promise, Myers’ all-around blue line skill is worth hanging on to albeit at a $5.5M cap hit through 2019.
With the Enstrom situation thoroughly picked through we’ll move on to…
Goaltender Decisions
Again we have a situation like Dano and Copp as Connor Hellebuyck is a restricted free agent. They won’t risk a promising (although last year’s 26-19-4, 2.89, .907 could have been better) young, first-string goalie backing a suspect defense. Protecting Michael Hutchinson isn’t worth it, particularly with 21-year-old Eric Comrie’s starter potential waiting in the wings to back up or play 1B?
Predicted protected players and their cap hits
Forwards
Bryan Little – $4.7M through 2018
Mathieu Perreault – $4.125M through 2021
Mark Scheifele – $6.125M through 2014
Blake Wheeler – $5.6M through 2019
Defensemen
Dustin Byfuglien (NMC) – $7.6M through 2021
Toby Enstrom (NMC) – $5.75M through 2018
Tyler Myers – $5.5M through 2019
Jacob Trouba – $2.8125M through 2018
Goalie
Connor Hellebuyck – restricted free agent
Top two options on who they would most likely lose
Projecting Enstrom doesn’t waive his NMC and the Jets don’t sacrifice the cap space to buy him out, Winnipeg employs the 8 skaters/1 goalie protection scheme. This leaves two semi-attractive forwards in Lowry and Dano available. Lowry would be a great “glue” guy and a young team leader for Vegas, but with several other of those likely available in the draft, they prioritize prying away Marko Dano’s largely untapped scoring promise.
If Winnipeg were to make a trade with Vegas to select/not select a player, who would it be and why.
I think they want Lowry to stay a Jet. He’s a young grinder with 35-point potential on a squad of young snipers that are just going to get better. His continued presence may pay in locker room points and allow the unit to grow together. Plus he’s inexpensive for at least next year. Perhaps they entice the Knights with a draft pick or prospect to instead remove 33-year-old defenseman Mark Stuart and his $2.65M cap hit from their books.
Follow Kevin on Twitter @KWcrosscheck
