Ilya Kovalchuk agreed in principle to a three year, $6.25 million AAV deal over the weekend that can be made ‘official’ on July 1st. By now, there have been several articles floating out there on expected impacts. Let’s do something a bit different.
Why Bring In Ilya Kovalchuk?
If you are Los Angeles, left wing scoring and the power play were two primary issues. Furthermore, the Kings scored just three times during the playoff, and that man advantage was non-existent. There were other options such as Jeff Skinner and Max Pacioretty. In the end, the Kings signed the 35-year old scorer. Anze Kopitar receives a sniper on the left side in all phases.
There are factors involved and according to Rob Vollman, the KHL factor is right about 80%. This presents one of the real pros of bringing on Kovalchuk. Los Angeles knows they are getting a sniper. If he can score 30 goals on wider ice in fewer games, then why not give a shot to a known commodity.
Kovalchuk scored at a clip of exactly a point a game in the NHL. He was also one of those feared scores at all phases. His ability to play on the penalty kill was underrated, especially during those last two seasons in New Jersey. This feels like a bed of roses, but wait.
The concerns of signing Kovalchuk
This starts the debate with a bang! Signing a player at 35 to a 35+ contract for three seasons is risky. Los Angeles cannot buy Kovalchuk out. The yet to be officially confirmed $6.25 million AAV is right at the level of Patrick Marleau (Toronto Maple Leafs). This becomes a real roll of the dice.
Besides homesickness, New Jersey’s financial woes, and other issues, there was one fundamental concern. Injuries present the usual, yet unexpected dilemma. Kovalchuk left the league with significant back and shoulder issues. The shoulder was well documented. He injured that in March of 2013 against the Florida Panthers. It resulted in an eventual surgery and later while he was in the KHL.
The other issue would be the back. It has resurfaced but only at a minor level. However, there was a reason why Kovalchuk was eased into his first season in the KHL. It cannot be completely overlooked. When looking at the NHL, its physicality and pace is unlike any other league. That is the reality.
Furthermore, ponder this fact. The KHL plays about 2/3 of the regular NHL schedule. There are also more scheduled breaks (some that last ten or more days). Their season starts in August and the regular season ends in March. The rigors of an NHL training camp present potential issues to boot. Those include the dreaded core and groin injuries which seem to invariably occur. That can happen to anyone to be fair.
The pros of bringing in Kovalchuk
Alas, Kovalchuk still has a one-timer that is considered very good to elite even at the NHL level. His trigger rate was second to Alex Ovechkin in his last few seasons in the league. Playing with one of the best centers in the game in Anze Kopitar can never hurt. Drew Doughty is a top defenseman, period! This adds a dynamic, especially to a power play that ranked 17th at 20.4% or middle of the pack. Even a 1-2% increase puts them in the top ten with ease.
Kovalchuk playing at 24-25 minutes a night will not occur as it did in his last two seasons with New Jersey. Expect something modified with first unit power play and top line even strength time. This could translate to anywhere from 17-19 minutes a night. Do not be shocked if Kovalchuk is eased in. Being placed into more offensive sheltered situations will help projections.
The winger brings about enthusiasm for the game which should endear himself to fans in Los Angeles quickly. He was dangerously close to signing a deal in 2010. More importantly, Kovalchuk is intimidating one on one for a goalie. When a 230+ pound forward has a breakaway, that has to give an opposing goaltender pause. Kovalchuk even was underestimated as a passer. Do not be surprised to see more assists early on.
What Projections May Come for Kovalchuk
Again, was that last year in New Jersey a blip because of injuries or a trend? Did those five years away take a little off his shot? Will the Kings’ top line be able to slow down the game a bit to allow Kovalchuk to get up to NHL speed? Those are just some of the questions. These factor into any projections.
If Kovalchuk can come in around a 10% shooting percentage, 25 goals should not be unreasonable. Scoring 30 times may be more difficult but not impossible. The goal scorer executed at an 11.3% rate in New Jersey. As we said, three shots a game translates to right around 250 shots.
There exists a low range of 40-45 points, and that assumes injury. If he plays all 82 games, Kovalchuk should come in around 55 points or so (25-30). There is an upper limit of about 65 points if he clicks early with Kopitar.