Hello everyone for this final “Trade Deadline Trending Odds” article at NHL Rumors. Already, the deadline has featured some high-profile trades. We are just several days away from Monday, 3PM ET. Our goal with this short column will be to try to gauge trending news with odds and make some sense out of it.
In short, what are the chances a player may be traded compared with analysis? The fun part of this is we get to use toys like a betting calculator. Can we predict who gets moved or who suddenly does not? One never knows. Look at how Tomas Hertl was extended late on Wednesday.
Anyway, let’s begin again with goaltenders this time.
NHL Trade Deadline Odds Calculator – Jaroslav Halak
We lead off with one that does not spark much of a debate. Vancouver had sparsely used Jaroslav Halak for a variety of reasons this 2021-22 season. Now, the goaltender approaches his 37th birthday in May with a no-move clause. Also, the Canucks’ goalie has his $1.25 million bonus.
The goalie has been kindly mediocre this season with a 2-6-2 record, a 3.42 goals-against average, and an .883 save percentage. His last appearance was in New Jersey on February 28th. Halak gave up six goals on 14 shots as Vancouver allowed seven that night to the Devils.
Thanks to Play Now, there are numbers, albeit in decimal form (we do the work for you), to look at how the betting side of the market looks at the trade trends. Numbers suggest that Halak could move and it is more likely than most think in spite of his play.
At this time, the goaltender sees a 52% chance of being moved by Vancouver by March 21st. Naturally, things can change but the thought process is that he plays so little. If a team comes to Vancouver with an offer and Halak agrees, he is gone.
Salary, ability, and fit could be strange bedfellows with Halak. The feeling by most is that this has been an outlier of a season for the Czech goaltender.
Again, several teams are rumored to show interest but Halak will be one of those goaltenders that may have to wait for a domino or two to fall. He also has to waive his NMC.
Marc-Andre Fleury — The Odds Of Getting Traded
The Chicago Blackhawks’ goaltender is polarizing. When he was initially traded to Chicago, Fleury paused and was rumored to consider retirement. Ultimately, he did report after the Vegas trade. His numbers have been a bit of an outlier, like Halak, for the Blackhawks.
Fleury’s record has climbed within a whisker of NHL .500. He is 19-20-5 on the season. The Chicago goaltender has posted four shutouts despite a defense that ranks well into the bottom third of the league. His .909 save percentage is quite impressive given many nights Fleury saw a ton of dangerous shots.
The early answer is no, he will not get traded. A Fleury trade works out at around a +110 moneyline in American terms. That gives an implied chance of just over 47% (47.62% to be exact). It seems crazy but this may have more to do with no one knows what Fleury will do. Will he waive his NMC or not?
There are quite a few teams, aside from Vegas, that are interested in the goalie. If Fleury does waive his NMC, his odds shoot up. He will go somewhere. It’s a question of where.
The “Pack Your Bags” meter is on hold here. Fleury controls his bags to be precise on this one.
Could Semyon Varlamov Get Traded From Long Island?
We have one more in our NHL Trade Deadline odds for goaltenders. This seemed strange at the start of the season but makes a bit more sense now. Semyon Varlamov could be on the trade block for the New York Islanders. He has another year left on his contract at $5 million.
New York is expected, barring the craziest of miracles, of missing the playoffs. It was expected the Islanders might even win the Metropolitan Division. Nothing seemed to go right from the beginning of the NHL year. Though the Islanders are playing better now, it is too little, too late.
Also, Varlamov has a 16 team no-trade list. First, one has to guess if a team is on that list which is slightly more than 50-50 already. Then, can New York make a deal? The Russian goaltender is 4-12-2 on the season but has a solid .912 save percentage. New York just could not score goals for him.
Currently, the goalie is hovering around +250 on the moneyline which translates to about a 29% chance of him getting moved. This still could happen but does he have to wait on what happens to Marc-Andre Fleury first?
Even then, it just does not seem like the wagering public has much faith on this one. Time will tell.
Our next article for NHL Rumors will recap some trades. The numbers and return are always fun to further examine. Thanks for reading.
